I’ve been ruminating a lot recently over the shape of any possible future Brexit deal for the UK. I’m a staunch “Remainer”: hoping that the EU strikes just the right stance in their negotiations to warn us about the dangers of recklessly leaving, whilst enticing us back into the fold. As a second best alternative, maybe we can have a bespoke deal which does not turn other EU countries green with envy, but provides key, strategic long-term benefits for our nation and preserves amicable ties, particularly in areas like the Erasmus programme, space exploration, visa-free tourism and, of course, trade in goods/services.
However, I’m also a realist, so take the time to consider other options.
The central problem is that the EU can only really survive if the first country that exits the club serves as an example to the rest. In 10 years, a prospering Britain would undoubtedly be too much of a distraction for the continent to handle, an easy focus for the internal dissent of each remaining member state to coalesce around. Why stick with the rules, if you could be like the UK? Marine le Pen would have a field day!
I always wonder why there was so little attention or discussion about the parallel of Greece before the British vote. They thought that with their country on its knees, they could extract debt relief from the EU and escape the painful fiscal medicine they were being forced to drink by threatening to crash out of the Euro. Poised on the precipice, nevertheless, they balked and turned back when the rest of the EU refused to budge.
Whilst I would love to think that the EU will do Britain a few favours for old times sake, when I examine the horrendous politics of this divorce, I am forced to conclude this has all the makings of a economic bloodbath.
All I can do is pray for God’s will to be done, His kingdom to come, on earth as in heaven.